StockBeat: AstraZeneca’s New Woes Leave Stock Close to Critical Levels By Investing.com

By Geoffrey Smith 

Investing.com — AstraZeneca’s latest spat with the European Union over its Covid-19 vaccine spells trouble for both parties.

Relations between the two have taken a serious turn for the worse this week as Denmark and Austria have both suspended distribution over concerns about possible links to blood clotting problems that have caused at least one death.  

The Danish and Austrian moves, which were followed by Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia as well as non-EU members Norway, Iceland and Thailand, revive concerns about the drug which has suffered more than its fair share of reputational problems thanks to ill-informed interventions from France’s President Emmanuel Macron and various elements within the German government.

The European Medicines Agency on Thursday repeated that it still considers the drug safe, and that its benefits outweigh the risks.

But Astra has another source of worry. It has already told the EU that it won’t be able to deliver more than half the 180 million doses of vaccine that it has contractually committed to in the second quarter. It had hoped to make good some of its shortfall by exporting vaccine from the U.S., but Reuters reported on Thursday that Washington had blocked such a move.

The report came on the same day that President Joe Biden announced an acceleration in the U.S.’s national vaccination plans.

Astra CEO Pascal Soriot could be forgiven for changing his job title to “Political Football”. His company has already been caught in the middle of a bad-tempered dispute between the U.K., which has rushed through regulatory approval and expedited its distribution in a campaign that appears – so far – to be one of the most successful anywhere in the world. Almost one-third of the U.K. adult population now has some degree of immunity through vaccination, nearly double the rate in the U.S. and streets ahead of France and Germany, where less than 7% have such protection.

To be caught now in a fresh diplomatic row with the U.S. must be particularly galling, especially since AZN’s drug is still awaiting approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the positive spin is that the U.S. position implies that it is required for domestic consumption, which implies the FDA will soon give it the green light).

The delays all threaten to stop AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) building market share in what is destined to be a profitable market for the foreseeable future. The company had appeared to have a good position thanks to its policy of pricing this year’s shipments on a no-profit basis, something that mitigated its relatively poor showing on efficacy. Its sales contracts reportedly allow it to raise prices once the pandemic is declared over.

As has been pointed out, the long-term future of AstraZeneca revolves much more around its cancer drugs than its Covid-19 vaccine, but the weakness in the stock is now approaching a critical level, threatening an upward trend line going back to 2017.  That trend is the expression of the galvanizing effect Soriot has had on the company since taking over as CEO.  Any further negative news flow could push the stock below important support levels.

AstraZeneca isn’t the only vaccine maker suffering such weakness. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), BioNTech and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) have also all lost over 20% from their 2020 highs as their drugs allow investors to seek better returns in beaten-down cyclicals. All the same, Soriot’s magic touch, which made AstraZeneca the most valuable stock in the FTSE 100, seems to have deserted the company.